The CW Fall Season Report Card
America's Next Top Model earns an A.
Congratulations The CW! You made it through your first fall season. …And you came in dead last behind the Big Four. Hey, don’t sweat it – no one really expected you to debut at #1. The good news is that you’re doing better than your predecessors UPN and the WB (on par with UPN and a whole 6% over the WB), and your numbers are increasing every week. A double congrats on coming in at #1 for your target demo of adults 18-34 on Wednesday, Dec 6. My money was always on Top Model’s CariDee.
You’re in especially good shape given that you had to figure out how to get two-thirds of the former UPN market to find you. Pretty smart putting your marketing efforts behind UPN’s biggest hit, America’s Next Top Model. Viewers not only found you, but made Top Model your biggest hit - #1 in its time period for women 18-34, and up 3% over last year! Let’s see how the rest of the schedule did:
Looks like you tried to kill UPN’s successful Monday block when you originally moved it to Sundays. Happily, you learned the error of your ways by moving Everybody Hates Chris, All Of Us, Girlfriends, and new comedy The Game back to Mondays. The ratings are lower than last year, but you’re posting week-to-week gains, and the shows posted their best numbers of the season in the final Monday night of sweeps. Not bad, but surely you can do better.
Tuesday is way up! Pairing The Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars was a match made in heaven, even though I think Veronica could easily beat Rory and Lorelei in the clever department. Girls is #2 in its time period for women 18-34, and Veronica is up 14% (Go V!) for adults 18-34 from last year on UPN.
But Wednesday is clearly your best night, especially with Top Model’s success spilling over into One Tree Hill. The Tree Hill Ravens are up over last year by 11% in adults 18-34, giving my favorite guilty pleasure show a very bright future.
But you have to do something about Thursday. I understand that Smallville and Supernatural are up against Grey’s Anatomy and CSI, but the superheroes and ghostbusters are really hurting. They did so well on the WB in the male 18-34 demo. Can’t you find another home for them?
At least you have men watching Smackdown on Friday, where the show is up 3% over last year in total viewers, and is tied for #1 in its time period among men 18-34. Clearly that’s where your boys are.
Perhaps you could move Smallville and Supernatural to Sunday, and cancel the 11-year-old 7th Heaven. It’s down by about 29% in adults 18-34. Yes, like many of The CW’s shows, it’s been improving since its CW debut, but really, how much longer can we care about the Camdens? Give the cute boys a chance.
Because you definitely have to shake it up if you want to compete with the big network players. Your numbers are steadily improving, but you need a breakout hit. (Do you really want to rest your entire network on a reality show?) Otherwise you’re destined to be nothing but a large niche network. But one that I would watch.
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